The recession in the first quarter of 2020 in Poland turned out to be shallower than expected, Goldman Sachs informed, referring to the published data of the Central Statistical Office.
The gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2020 increased by 1.9% year-on-year compared to a 3.2% y/y growth in the fourth quarter of 2019. - According to the flash estimate published by the Central Statistical Office.
The quarter-on-quarter GDP declined by 0.5%, while prices of consumer goods and services in April 2020 increased by 3.4% y/y and decreased by 0.1% y/y compared to the previous month.
- The recession in the first quarter of 2020 turned out to be shallower than Goldman Sachs experts' expectations (-0.5% vs. -1% kdk). - the bank wrote in the announcement.
It added, however, that these results are based on flash estimates. Moreover, GS experts indicate that the economic effects of the pandemic will be most visible in the second quarter.
The GS economists also pointed out that the National Bank of Poland is expected to reduce the reference rate from 0.50% to 0.05% at the end of this quarter, and inflation will remain relatively harmless in 2020.
- The final inflation estimate in April confirmed the initial edition, which showed that inflation fell by 1.2pps to +3.4% y/y, restoring the NBP tolerance," it wrote.