The coronavirus pandemic will not defeat the Polish economy because it is based on solid foundations, but in 2020, for the first time in almost 30 years, it will record a recession of 3.9%, and in 2021, it will start to gradually recover, according to a World Bank report published on Wednesday.
As the World Bank pointed out in its report on the economic situation in the region of Europe and Central Asia, the decreasing restrictions associated with the pandemic, the return to normality of many sectors of the economy, the government's aid programmes, as well as the slow response of the main trading partners will allow Poland to return to the path of moderate growth in 2021.
The recession in Poland in 2020 is smaller than expected, and in 2021. GDP will increase by 3.5%.
According to the WB economists, in 2021 the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) may reach 3.5 per cent.
"The expected recession in 2020 is expected to be shallower than the 4.2% target in June. In turn, the response in 2021 could be faster than the 2.8% projected in June'. - Written.
However, the experts have warned that the forecasts have a high risk of error and may turn out to be too optimistic.
Polish economy based on strong foundations resulting from years of economic growth and responsible macroeconomic policy.
- The Polish economy was strong when the COVID-19 pandemic began. Years of uninterrupted economic growth, responsible macroeconomic policy, access to European funds and social programmes made it possible to contain the crisis and limit its negative consequences,' emphasised Marcus Heinz, World Bank representative for Poland and the Baltic States, quoted in the communication.
However, it is important to remember the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic - it will hit the poorest people.
- At the same time, the pandemic has reminded everyone that the crisis is not saving anyone. That is why we must already invest in post-pandemic development by, among other things, improving the health system, education and the investment climate - he added.
According to experts, due to the recession in 2020, the scale of poverty in the whole region of Europe and Central Asia may increase. "Up to 6 million people could fall into poverty defined as a daily income of less than USD 5.5, which is below the poverty line most often adopted for middle-income countries. - they indicated.
The WB pointed out that the negative consequences of the pandemic are particularly felt in the education and health sector.
"The virus has already killed thousands of people, and some of them, who have recovered, will be facing health problems for a long time". - It was written. However, school closures can result in losses of between one third and even a whole year of schooling, which, as a result, can increase inequalities, as the weaker pupils will be the most affected.
In the fight against the effects of the pandemic, important access to education and health care.
According to the experts, better access to and improvement of the quality of higher education, as well as the reduction of health risk factors, are crucial to the efforts to reactivate the economy in the region.
"Although countries in Europe and Central Asia are doing quite well in basic education and health services, as shown by the World Bank's Human Capital Index, many countries need to do more to succeed in the future. - They have evaluated.
As As Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, the World Bank's chief economist for Europe and Central Asia, pointed out, adults should be healthy, active and able to work whenever possible.
The healthy attitudes of society - the fight against obesity, addictions - alcohol use and smoking - are also important.
- It is therefore particularly important to reduce the risk of obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption, which has a negative impact on the health of the ageing population. In turn, universities must prepare students for the challenges of the modern labour market - she added.
Good quality higher education, as indicated in the report, is of key importance, as it enables people to remain competitive in a rapidly changing labour market.