Surplus expected, but a new record?

This is not what economists expected from Poland's balance of payments. The positive balance in June amounted to EUR 2.8 billion. Exports were growing and imports were falling.

  • The data on the balance of payments surprised the economists. They expected a EUR 2 billion surplus, and there is EUR 2.8 billion
  • It's a historical record. Never before has more money flowed into Poland for such amounts of money than was flown out
  • This will not only improve GDP data, but will also strengthen the zloty's exchange rate.

The current account surplus in June turned out to be a record high in history. EUR 2.8bn, or PLN 12.6bn - so much more was received by Poland than was flown out in June - according to the National Bank of Poland. Economists expected a surplus, but the average forecast was just over EUR 2bn. So the surprise is big.

It is, after all, a historical record. Years ago there were already larger amounts of the balance of payments, but on the minus - not on the plus. In June 2011 the balance was negative and amounted to 3.4 billion euros.

This year the overall situation with the balance of payments is very good, with a surplus of EUR 11.8 billion in the first half of the year. This improves the results of our gross domestic product. And it additionally explains the reasons for the strengthening of the zloty in recent months. Since more euro is coming to Poland than is coming out of it, the demand for the zloty is also higher.

Exports up, imports down

In June, the current account of the balance of payments recorded positive balances of trade in goods (PLN 11.8bn), services (PLN 6.1bn) and secondary income (PLN 0.1bn) and negative balance of primary income (PLN 5.4bn), NBP reported.

Exports of goods amounted to PLN 83.1bn and were higher by PLN 5.7bn (i.e. by 7.3%) than in the corresponding month of 2019. The import of goods decreased by PLN 5.3bn (i.e. by 7.0%) and reached PLN 71.2bn. The balance of trade in goods was positive and amounted to PLN 11.8 billion (EUR 2.7 billion).

Revenues from the export of services amounted to PLN 16.1 billion and decreased by PLN 7.1 billion (i.e. by 30.6%) compared to June 2019. The value of imported services amounted to PLN 10.0 billion and was lower by PLN 3.5 billion (i.e. by 25.7%). The surplus in June was PLN 6.1 billion (EUR 1.3 billion).

Investors withdraw money from Poland

The balance of primary income was negative and amounted to PLN 5.4 billion. It consists mainly of money flows related to foreign investments, so the data shows that foreign investors were withdrawing money from Poland.

The income of foreign direct investors from their capital involvement in Polish entities amounted to PLN 4.0 billion. The negative balance of income was also influenced by the balance of income from portfolio investments, which was negative and amounted to PLN 0.7 billion.



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