Fitch has lowered its forecast of Poland's GDP growth in 2020 to -3.2% y/y from -1.7% estimated at the end of April, the agency's report shows. For 2021, the agency raised the estimate of Poland's GDP growth rate to 4.5% y/y from 4.3%.
The authors of the report estimate that Poland's GDP will be y/y in Q1-4 2020: 1.6%, -6.1%, -5.0% and -3.3% respectively.
Throughout 2020 Fitch expects private consumption in Poland to fall by 5% (and then increase by 5.1% in 2021). According to the agency, gross fixed capital formation will increase by 0.1% in 2020 and by 4.6% in 2021.
Fitch expects CPI inflation in Poland to reach 2.6% at the end of 2020 and 2.8% at the end of 2021.
The agency forecasts the contribution of net exports to GDP at -0.2pps this year and -0.7 in 2021.
In the same report, the agency lowered its forecast of the global GDP decline in 2020 to 4.6% from -3.9% in the previous round.