The Polish economy is perceived as the most resistant to the pandemic crisis in the European Union, thanks to which it will shrink the least in the EU, Bloomberg writes.
The Agency also quotes Paweł Borys, President of the Polish Development Fund (PFR), who says that Poland's biggest decline is already behind us and the economy is starting to recover from the crisis.
Poland with the least economic decline in the Union
According to EU forecasts, this year Poland's GDP will shrink by 4.3% and it will be the smallest drop among all the countries of the community, Bloomberg recalls.
The situation is still difficult for many companies, but the worst is behind us
- In the second half of April we reached the bottom of economic activity," Paweł Budka, President of the Polish Development Fund (PFR), told the portal. He added that this does not mean that May or June will not be difficult, he predicts that GDP in the second quarter of this year may fall by 10 to 15%.
In a few months we'll come out of the collapse, but its effects will be felt for years
- Everything seems to indicate that it will take a few months to get out of the crisis - he explained to the Budka portal. He warned, however, that "the effects of what is happening now will be felt for years to come".
According to the head of the Polish Development Fund, the epidemic-related crisis in the Polish economy is similar to the model described by the letter "U" - it means a sharp decline and some longer period of recession, without clearly the worst point of this state, followed by a gradual return to the pre-crisis level of economic activity.
The Polish Development Fund plays an important role in state aid in the era of coronavirus
As Bloomberg writes, the Polish Development Fund distributes the crisis-related part of the state aid to companies. Within less than two weeks, it provided PLN 11.5 billion to over 56 thousand companies, and Budka expects this number to reach 100 thousand soon. The President of PFR stresses that part of the aid is loans that will be written off next year.
Polish economy largely dependent on the economic condition of euro countries
ING Bank Śląski's chief economist Rafał Benecki, in an interview with Bloomberg, pointed out that Poland's economy is linked to the economies of the eurozone countries, which buy more than half of Polish exports.
- With the eight-percent decline in GDP expected in these countries, it is difficult to count on economic growth in Poland, he told the portal.
In the second quarter we are facing an "economic hole"
Benecki agrees with Borys' opinion that the second quarter of this year will be the worst for the Polish economy - he predicts a 9% decline of GDP in this period.
- The redistribution alone will not ensure economic growth, ING economist notes. - Although shops are opening, people are reluctant to spend money - he added.